Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 30.498354 34.117733 38.313229 43.619212 50.277763 58.544368 69.909982
2025-03-23 25.391517 29.874502 35.566089 43.608363 55.226724 72.475787 102.748488
2025-03-30 22.134546 26.963023 33.504099 43.567805 59.938675 88.776277 155.910329
2025-04-06 19.597984 24.441808 31.306294 42.548443 62.638462 103.828961 234.552969
2025-04-13 18.537653 23.721827 31.448252 45.065224 72.473091 142.404771 554.194713
2025-04-20 17.073855 22.182526 30.030469 44.513381 76.094782 171.482121 1404.859257
2025-04-27 16.048805 21.153767 29.228551 44.830686 81.858083 218.879871 52303.238752
2025-05-04 15.232954 20.341036 28.639249 45.383035 88.632263 291.542546 NaN
2025-05-11 14.469083 19.523792 27.915383 45.472571 94.351866 388.667622 NaN
2025-05-18 13.711157 18.642898 26.962527 44.852268 97.701749 500.171196 NaN
2025-05-25 13.156266 18.043355 26.439446 45.077962 104.267471 745.719587 NaN
2025-06-01 12.597073 17.390326 25.741409 44.748720 108.800350 1120.103628 NaN
2025-06-08 12.060313 16.747652 25.018111 44.278295 112.971729 1883.453967 NaN
2025-06-15 11.568080 16.148547 24.322487 43.758992 116.904425 3938.417020 NaN
2025-06-22 11.148416 15.646454 23.767448 43.503641 122.242570 22864.267684 NaN
2025-06-29 10.682006 15.035354 22.944976 42.398858 122.623566 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 10.586873 15.064390 23.396602 44.859213 146.229999 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 10.230782 14.608706 22.819039 44.294202 150.714342 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.973946 14.315820 22.552975 44.601369 162.442867 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.753377 14.075234 22.374596 45.145694 177.752003 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.513148 13.785585 22.067115 45.233033 190.060081 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.238369 13.419288 21.567200 44.617560 195.062590 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.039222 13.183090 21.333183 44.841025 210.610915 NaN NaN